Saturday, May 31, 2014

Investing in Pharma companies.

Investing in pharmaceuticals is different from other companies. Pharma companies can multiply many fold if invested with a knowledge of pharma. Pharmaceutical companies with no product may have higher valuations and some with sales may have very low valuations. To understand this we have to understand how drug development and regulatory approval for marketing the drug works.

There are three types of pharma companies.

Devlopment stage

Small

and Large .

Development stage pharma companies are cash burners with no revenue and no product and the companies running on dream. That is on the expectation of making it big by coming out with a product and selling them. We can call these companies as dreamer companies and the talk is more about future than what they have now. This is like a start up company. Start up companies may at least have product. But these companies don't have any product yet.

Small pharma companies may have revenue or expecting revenues. These companies may have one or two approved products and in sales or ready to sell. These may also have some or many in the pipeline on various stages. These companies are starting to realize their dream and hope companies.

 
Development pharma
Small pharma
Large pharma
Source of funds
Mostly venture capital funded and recently listed in the exchange
Venture capital, Institutional investors, partial  acquisitions by big pharma,   new issue of shares
 Institutional investors,  new share issues
Revenue
No revenue, Cash burners
Licensing agreements, collaborative drug development,  marketing agreements, product sales
Licensing agreements, collaboration, JV, product sales, marketing agreements, patent royalties, 
P/E
Difficult to calculate
large P/E
As expected of pharma
EPS
None
Makes no sense
As expected of pharma
Market cap
Few tens of millions to hundreds of Mill
Upto few billions
Tens of billions
Brand(s)
No Brand yet
Getting establish
Established
Visibility
No analyst coverage
One or two
Good coverage
Investing risk
very very high
Very High to high
As expected in pharma
Returns
extra ordinary
Superlative
As expected in pharma
Pharma knowledge needed
Familiarity with pharma
Understanding of pharma
Regular investing knowledge
Information
Only whatever company provides
Few financial sites, company
Many media, analyst articles, finace sites like google, yahoo, money control
Behavior
Move huge on news
Move huge on news
Typical behavior
Positive news items
Phase 2 success and NDA filing, FDA approval, Buy out
Buy out, Marketing agreement, FDA approval, Sales target achievements
FDA approval of new drug, M&A, favorable Government regulation. , expansion in new geography, new blockbuster drug,  market share
Negative news items
Drug failure, Cash burn out
failure of drug sales, cash burn, no partner, drug failure in pipeline
FDA inspections and warning letters, Dwindling main drug sales, patent expiry, competitive drug indroduction, no new drugs in pipeline